SAN ANTONIO – With the summer solstice on June 20 and hurricane season and meteorological summer starting on June 1, the busy season is just around the corner.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) released the 2025 summer outlook, and it isn’t great news for anyone wishing for rain.
Temperature Outlook
The latest summer temperature outlook isn’t good news for Texas residents. Forecasts suggest above-average temperatures across much of the south, with Texas experiencing a significant rise in warmth.
The NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) is depicting a 70% chance of above-average temperatures in the summer months. This was after the third warmest spring on record for San Antonio through May 14.
Precipitation Outlook
Looking ahead at the summer forecast for Texas, the state is expected to face warmer-than-usual temperatures, with above-normal warmth likely across much of the south.
However, the precipitation outlook isn’t as promising. Much of Texas, along with the southwest and southern plains, is forecast to experience normal to just below average for our normal summer precipitation.
Tropical Outlook
Conditions remain quiet in the tropics, music to many Texans’ ears, as some are still recovering from Hurricane Beryl last year.
The National Hurricane Center will issue tropical outlooks twice a day until the 2025 hurricane season ends Nov. 30, so if anything pops up, we will let you know.
Is it normal not to see any development so far? Yes. Since 2003, only 11 tropical cyclones have formed on or before June 15. It is never too early for Hurricane preparations.
Official outlook looks to favor an above normal season, although it says nothing about landfalls. Remember that it only takes one storm to make an impactful year on the Texas coast or a weak tropical system to sit and create heavy rainfall.
Drought Outlook
It is no surprise that the drought has worsened for most of South Central Texas. There has been some improvement in Bastrop and Lee counties this spring, with the heavy rainfall seen this spring.
Bad news? Soil moisture is near normal to below normal with wildfire risk this summer. The long-term drought looks to continue through at least the summer and fall with no signal of any changes in any direction.
The drought is also supposed to have all the local reservoirs and aquifer levels to remain near record low.
KSAT will keep you posted with any changes as the summer months get started.
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