North Carolina’s sluggish growth in late 2024 was directly tied to Hurricane Helene’s devastation to the western part of the state.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — North Carolina’s economy is expected to grow nearly 3% this year, according to UNC Charlotte’s latest economic forecast.
The Belk College of Business released its latest economic forecast this week, predicting North Carolina’s biggest job increases are expected in fields like education, health care and construction; however, experts are predicting lower overall growth compared to 2024 due to ongoing trade tensions and recovery efforts for Hurricane Helene.
UNC Charlotte financial economist John Connaughton says those new factors create more uncertainty as experts constantly monitor the Federal Reserve and inflation. Connaughton puts the chance of a return to inflation at 60-to-4, a 60% lesser chance of recession and a 10% chance of an economic boom in 2025.
“In addition to fiscal policy concerns, we have seen the U.S. unemployment rate rise from 3.3% in May of 2023 to 4.2% in March and April of 2025,” Connaughton said. “As a result of the weakness in the labor market, the Fed began reducing interest rates in September of 2024. By December of 2024 the Fed Funds rate dropped by 100 basis points.”
Connaughton says the wildcard for the economy is President Donald Trump’s tariff plan, warning this could slow the economy further and cause a mild bump in short-run inflation.
Closer to home, North Carolina’s slow growth is a direct link to Helene, researchers say. Recovery will take time because of the nature of the damage, as well as the impact of the lack of flood insurance across western North Carolina.
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