The Celtics offseason has officially begun after a stunning second-round exit against the Knicks last week. How the franchise responds to the loss amid a payroll crunch and Jayson Tatum’s lengthy absence will be fascinating to watch this summer. Let’s explore some questions on those topics and what else can be learned from this season in this week’s mailbag.
Brian, I don’t think anyone should be surprised this Celtics team fell far short of its goal. Yes, injuries/illness were a factor. However, the Celtics biggest issues this season were 1) inconsistent play at home 2) blowing big leads and 3) Coach Mazzulla being late to make adjustments/repeating mistakes.
Each of these things came back to bite the team in the playoffs. Of greater concern, they were all also regressions from the 2022-2023 season as well as some seasons prior to that.
It seemed like, as a collective, this group had ‘gotten over the hump’ and addressed the issues that had been holding them back, ultimately leading to Banner 18. Now, I’m not so sure that maybe the 2023-2024 season wasn’t an aberration rather than a correction. What’s your take? –Sean S
All fair points Sean. There was a lot of change in last year’s team that won the title so I think that certainly contributed to many believing that team got over the hump. However, those old fatal flaws coming back to the extent during the regular season was likely overlooked to some degree as post title malaise. A number of the home losses early in the season were baffling and there were plenty of late game collapses that foreshadowed the first two games of the Knicks series.
I didn’t have a ton of gripes with Mazzulla’s game management during the regular season (2022-23 was far worse in my opinion) but this was his worst playoff performance by far. There was plenty of blame to go around the team for the collapses but Mazzulla certainly didn’t help the Celtics fight off either with his maneuvers.
With two very ugly playoff losses in the last three years, let’s just say the grace period after a title is probably not as big for this group going forward. Ultimately, it may not matter next year anyway with Tatum out since the standards will be so different for the remaining group (that will look significantly different anyway). However, how that remaining group responds to this second-round exit will be telling and will help shape the direction this team goes in for the remainder of the decade.
Hi B Robb,
Feels like the media is making it seem harder than it really is for Celtics to get under the 2nd apron. Trade Holiday to the Heat for Rozier plus a few 2nd picks and Miami would be dumb not to jump at it. Rozier is in the final year at 26m so you’d save $4M in 2025-26 and get out from under the final 2 years of Holiday’s contract.
Trade Porzingis and back to Washington for Marcus Smart and one small filler contract to make the $$ work then stretch Smart’s contract. Those are 2 random first thoughts, there could be better deals out there for sure but in general it just doesn’t seem to be the looming financial catastrophe some are making it out to be.
There are always a few teams desperate to get better with no easy path to do so who would take a risk on either player. Am I off base? –Steve
Let me just forward this email to Brad Stevens and the Celtics can call it an offseason! Thanks for your hard work. Sadly, NBA trades are never this simple in large part thanks to this new CBA.
The problem with Holiday’s contract is it keeps going up for a guy that is already 35 years old. He only appeals to teams that want to win now and those teams probably have reservations paying a 37-year-old $37 million in a couple years when he’s not going to be top-3 offensive option in all likelihood.
The Rozier idea is something I looked at while sorting through Jrue Holiday trade scenarios. Ultimately, I didn’t bring it up as an idea because of Holiday’s long-term money. Miami has a ton of cash tied up in Tyler Herro and Andrew Wiggins and Holiday doesn’t turn them into a contender. They are going to be searching for bigger fish.
Porzingis for Smart makes plenty of sense for the Celtics but why do the Wizards do it without incentive? They are adding payroll. Unless they think they can sell off Porzingis for something elsewhere, they will need a sweetener to make that deal.
Ultimately, as I wrote on MassLive this week, the Celtics bet that these big Holiday and Porzingis contracts would age well. We are going to find out if they were right in the next month but I’m not optimistic about it especially given Porzingis’ health issues.
BRobb,
The Celts did not finish the way champions do. They blew leads, and they quit in the 1st quarter of that last game in NY. One punch and they laid down. The past season was great until it mattered. What happened? Was it injuries? Now we hear Jaylen had a meniscus tear. It was clear something was wrong with him. Jrue was a non-factor in the playoffs. He aged overnight. Payton is limited against strong defenders. KP – sad and disappointing. He was dominant mid-season. Al tried but he and Kornet couldn’t compete inside against KAT and Robinson. I’m mad because I thought we were better, and I’m venting. Your thoughts? –Malcolm
These are all fair vents Malcolm. Ultimately, I think it was a little bit of everything as you laid out. Injuries certainly didn’t help but they also didn’t prevent Boston from building 20-point leads in the first two games of the Knicks series. Those collapses came due to a variety of reasons. Cold shooting. Bad in-game management and coaching. Defensive breakdowns. Injuries surely factored in as well. Holiday and Horford definitely started to show their age as the playoffs wore on with their inconsistency.
The Celtics should be stewing about it all since this team should still be playing. It’s going to sting even more in a month or two when it becomes apparent what the next version of this team will look like talent-wise due to financial concerns and Jayson Tatum’s injury.
Hi Brian,
Will Tatum’s salary count against the team cap next year? —David in Framingham
It will. Tatum is set to make $54.1 million next year as every dollar will still count against the cap despite Tatum’s injury, a tough reality in the NBA. Boston could apply for a disabled player exception but that wouldn’t help with cap relief. Instead, it would give Boston some potential extra spending power if they want to use it.
If a player is seriously injured, his team can apply for the disabled-player exception to replace him. An NBA-designed physician would have to determine that the player is “substantially more like than not” to be out through June 15 next season for it to be granted.
The latest Boston could apply for this exception is January but they certainly wouldn’t do it before knowing Tatum is definitely going to be out for the year. The fact Boston’s payroll and luxury tax bill is so high now makes it unlikely they would even use it unless they are cutting substantial salary elsewhere via trades. If Boston ends up applying for it, they would get a $14.1 million exception that could be used on a one-year deal or via a trade exception for a player on an expiring deal.
