The Rockies are a hot team because of their awfulness.
ESPN, Yahoo!, CNN, FanGraphs, and several other national media outlets have slowed down and looked at the Rockies’ wreck.
“Last year, we watched the Chicago White Sox lose more games than any major league team in history, and if the White Sox hadn’t gotten white hot in the last week of the season, the final number would’ve been much more embarrassing than 121,” wrote FanGraphs’ Michael Baumann.
Then came his kicker: “This year’s Rockies are worse. Maybe a lot worse.”
Going strictly by the raw numbers, the Rockies were on pace to finish the season with a 26-136 record as they entered this weekend’s three-game series at Arizona. Were that to hold, the Rockies would obliterate Chicago’s record for the most losses in a season.
The 2024 White Sox managed to win five of their final six games, avoiding further ignominy of being the team with the worst winning percentage of baseball’s Modern Era. Their .253 winning percentage is not the worst. The 1916 A’s (.235), 1935 Braves (.248), 1962 Mets (.250) and 1904 Senators (.252) were all worse.
The Rockies entered the weekend with a minus-137 run differential. They’re one pace to be outscored by 548 runs. They have been outscored 44-15 in the first inning and 46-6 in the fifth. That kind of ineptitude is unsustainable, right?
As ESPN’s David Schoenfield first noted, the Rockies have been getting blown out — a lot. Twelve of the Rockies’ 36 losses are considered “blowout” losses (five or more runs). That’s 33%. Last year’s White Sox had a 31% blowout loss rate. The 1962 Mets were also at 31%. As Shoenfield wrote, “That tells us that the Rockies have a chance to chase down last year’s historic White Sox club.”
I could go on with more ugly numbers. The Rockies entered the weekend with a 2-20 road record. Their 21-0 loss last Saturday, the night before manager Bud Black was fired, ranks as the third-biggest shutout margin in the majors since 1901. And they have played only 13 games so far within the National League West, baseball’s toughest division. They were 2-11 going into the three-game set vs. the Diamondbacks. Already 21 1/2 games behind the division-leading Dodgers, Colorado will still have 36 of its 49 division games left to play.
So, is there any light at the end of the tunnel? Any chance the Rockies can dodge baseball immortality and avoid being the worst team of all time?
Sure, but a lot has to go right.
Here’s a must-do list.
• Beginning with his return this weekend after a long stint on the injured list, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar has to resemble the player he was last year when he hit .269 with 45 doubles and 26 home runs.
• Two-time Gold Glove center fielder Brenton Doyle must snap out of a 20-game funk that’s seen him hit .145 with one double, one home run and five RBIs.
• Second baseman Thairo Estrada must return from his broken wrist — soon — and team with Tovar to give Colorado solid defense up the middle.
• First baseman Michael Toglia has to stop striking out 40% of the time on the road. And he’s got to hit a lot better than his career average of .208.
• Third baseman Ryan McMahon can’t have any more 0-for-35 streaks like he had earlier this season.
• Colorado needs rookie right-hander Chase Dollander and rookie left-hander Carson Palmer, who made his big-league debut Friday night, to pitch like the promising prospects they’re projected to be.
• Right-hander Ryan Feltner needs to return healthy — soon. So does lefty Austin Gomber. That would push Antonio Senzatela out of the rotation, which needs to happen.
• Interim manager Warren Schaeffer must steer the team through a wicked storm of an upcoming schedule that includes games against the Phillies, Yankees, Cubs and Mets. Schaeffer has to find a way to keep morale from sinking. That won’t be easy.
FanGraphs’ number-cruncher Dan Szymborski gives the Rockies a 13.9% chance of at least tying the White Sox’s 121 losses, and an 11.6% chance of going 40-122 or worse.
That’s encouraging in a macabre kind of way.
I predicted the Rockies would finish 72-90 this season, which shows you how much I know. Then again, Denver Post sports editor Matt Schubert projected 75 wins. So, there you go.
I suppose the Rockies’ goal should be to avoid their third consecutive 100-loss season. They would have to go 57-62 the rest of the way to do that.
Never mind.
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