Big changes are on the horizon for the Celtics and teams across the NBA this offseason. One of the biggest names that could be on the move is Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo amid a dreary future outlook in Milwaukee following three consecutive first-round exits.
There will be plenty of suitors for Antetokounmpo across the league if the former MVP is made available this summer by the Bucks, but the Celtics are generally not one of the teams brought up as expected top bidders around the league. However, Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com suggested Thursday on Get Up that the Celtics could be a potential suitor if the big man prefers to stay in the Eastern Conference.
“I think Boston was more interesting before the devastating Tatum injury because I don’t know what you can possibility get from Jayson Tatum next year,” Windhorst said. “Before that, I think that was a real conversation and maybe it still could be.”
So what exactly would need to happen for the Celtics to put themselves in position to make a bid in a hypothetical Antetokounmpo sweepstakes? Let’s look at the moving parts involved and the factors Brad Stevens and company would need to weigh if given a chance to get involved.
COULD CELTICS TRADE FOR GIANNIS WITH SECOND APRON RESTRICTIONS?
The challenges of the new CBA are numerous, but they are especially cumbersome for a team beginning the offseason in the second apron like the Celtics. Boston’s current payroll commitments for next year stand at $227 million, which is $20 million above the second apron ($207 million).
Boston cannot take back more salary than they send out in a trade while over the second apron, and they also can’t aggregate players (combine salaries) in a deal while over the second apron. Once Boston drops under the second apron (which can technically happen at the competition of a trade), aggregating salaries would be permitted.
With Antetokounmpo ($54.1 million) making more money next season than any player on the Celtics roster, a trade as of now is not even legal. Boston would need to move at least $74 million in salary during or before a hypothetical Giannis trade to make room for Antetokounmpo’s massive salary while staying under the second apron ($207 million) at the completion of the deal.
That path is doable, but certainly would involve numerous maneuvers by Boston’s front office. The Celtics would either need to do some salary dumps (at least $20 million) before the trade itself or find multiple teams to get involved in the main deal and be willing to take on excess salary Boston would send out.
The Bucks can technically take back up to 125 percent of any salary they send out in a trade this offseason but adding payroll certainly won’t be their preference if they are dealing away Antetokounmpo this summer. Boston would either need to sweeten the pot to get a third team to take on some money or trade away players that will command a big asset return that could be used in the deal (while also reducing salary).
WHAT WOULD A LEGAL GIANNIS TRADE STRUCTURE LOOK LIKE FOR CELTICS?
Once the Celtics figure out a way to get under the second apron by the end of a potential deal, the structure would be quite simple to satisfy salary matching rules.
Antetokounmpo ($54.1 million) and Jaylen Brown ($53.1 million) meet the criteria for salary matching. From a compensation standpoint, any competitive offer for Antetokounmpo from Boston would have to start with Brown and expand from there. Whether the Bucks would want to build with Brown or flip him for assets is another question.
How far exactly would Boston be willing to go beyond Brown in an offer would be the intriguing question. The Bucks would likely have little interest in bringing back an aging Jrue Holiday or an expiring contract in Kristaps Porzingis at their salary numbers. Boston’s future tradable draft capital probably doesn’t hold a ton of appeal if Tatum and Antetokounmpo are going to be on a roster together for the foreseeable future.
With so many other competitive suitors around the league in a potential Antetokounmpo sweepstakes, Boston would need to include something significant beyond Brown to be in the mix. Would Payton Pritchard’s terrific value contract be enough? Would Derrick White become a possibility if the Celtics had more coming back from the Bucks or other teams in the deal than just Antetokounmpo? These are the tough questions Boston would need to ask internally upon considering getting involved in these types of trade talks.
Of course, several other big questions would influence what Boston might be willing to offer.
WHAT DO THE BUCKS WANT FOR GIANNIS IF HE ASKS OUT?
The Bucks don’t control their own first round draft capital until 2030 so it’s hard to figure out what their gameplan would be if Giannis demands out, short of figuring out a way to get those picks/pick swaps back from the Blazers and Pelicans. If Milwaukee wants to stay respectable in the present, a trade package headlined by Jaylen Brown (under contract through 2028-29) would be nothing to sneeze at.
However, if the team is intent on beginning a massive reboot/teardown, Brown’s age and big salary may not interest them as much as cheap promising young talent and a pile of future draft picks. In that scenario, the Celtics would need to do a lot of work finding those assets via other teams since there are plenty of other teams currently better positioned (Spurs, Rockets, Thunder) to build big offers including those things.
WHERE DOES GIANNIS WANT TO GO?
Windhorst laid out the case Thursday for Antetokounmpo wanting to stay in the East if he asks out of Milwaukee by pointing out the Western Conference is stacked with potential top-tier contenders next season and beyond, while there are few intimidating cores in the East.
How appealing the Celtics would be to Antetokounmpo is a fair question to ask after Tatum’s Achilles tear. Would he be willing to punt on another season in his prime as a top contender to wait for Tatum in 2026-27 and beyond? Or would joining a younger or win-now ready squad elsewhere hold more appeal?
Antetokounmpo does hold some cards in this scenario given his contract situation. He’s only under contract through 2027-28 with a player option for his final season looming he will certainly opt out of. Any team trading a massive haul for Antetokounmpo will want to know he wants to stay long term and perhaps will request an extension as part of the deal. If Antetokounmpo isn’t willing to do that in some places, those suitors may reduce their offers or drop out entirely of the bidding.
The Bucks may also move Antetokounmpo to a preferred destination (if given comparable offers) as a show of good faith for their longtime All-Star. Whether the Celtics end up as a preferred destination on Giannis’ list (if he makes one) will be mandatory for the Celtics to consider any deal. Trading an All-Star like Jaylen Brown doesn’t make sense unless you get a long-term commitment for another one.
WOULD THERE BE ENOUGH LEFT FOR CELTICS TO BLOW UP REST OF ROSTER AROUND TATUM TO BRING IN GIANNIS?
Big changes could be coming to the Celtics roster this offseason anyway but a move for Giannis would be seismic. Outside of Tatum, pretty much any player on the Celtics roster would not be safe given the amount of cap gymnastics that would be required to pull off that type of blockbuster. Naturally, the Celtics would want to hold onto some key role players but who would be required to pull off said deal is another matter.
Ultimately, the question the front office would have to ask is whether building around Tatum, Antetokounmpo and whatever is left over a better path than building with a Tatum/Brown/White/Pritchard core with financial limitations a couple years down the line? If one thinks it’s not possible to viably build around Tatum and Antetokounmpo with what’s leftover after a hypothetical deal, then it’s also fair to wonder if the challenge would be even greater to retool a contender with Tatum and Brown making supermax salaries under the harsh restrictions of the new CBA. Brown and Antetokounmpo will be making the same amount essentially for the next three years of their deals.
It’s possible the Celtics don’t have enough to trade for Antetokounmpo (if Bucks executives want to go much younger or focus on draft picks with a return). The All-Star may not want to come to Boston or prefer another win-now destination in the wake of Tatum’s injury as well. In those cases, all of these questions quickly become moot. Antetokounmpo also hasn’t asked out yet either, although it seems inevitable a divorce is coming amid a bleak future for Milwaukee.
However, if Antetokounmpo asks out though and prefers to stay in the East for competitive reasons, these hypotheticals about Boston’s best long-term path become fascinating in a hurry. Getting involved strictly to block another East suitor from landing a top-5 player would need to be a consideration while weighing Boston’s most promising path back towards sustaining a contender.
There will be plenty of fallout for the Celtics one way or another if Antetokounmpo ends up being moved in the coming months. Whether they end up having a chance to become a suitor in that process is worth watching.
