Most numbers will tell you the Nuggets trail their series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Point differential favors the Thunder by 32 after three games. In regulation alone, the Nuggets have lost by a combined 41. They’ve committed 52 turnovers to Oklahoma City’s 29. They’ve been outscored 156-114 in the paint and 67-36 on fast breaks. They’ve been held to 20.3 assists per contest after averaging 31 in the regular season — third-most in NBA history.
They’ve made only one more 3-pointer entering Sunday’s Game 4. They’ve attempted only three more foul shots.
In their 113-104 Game 3 win on Friday, they got up 85 field goal attempts to OKC’s 104.
For them to lead the series 2-1 in spite of all of that, there must be a reasonable explanation. The emerging conventional wisdom has been that Denver’s continuity and playoff scars are trump cards when a game hangs in the balance, in contrast to Oklahoma City’s inexperience.
“I was excited to play Denver because I knew that they were gonna bring greatness out of us,” Thunder guard Alex Caruso said Saturday. “It’s no disrespect to Memphis, but we were gonna win that series, especially when Ja (Morant) went out, just based off of talent level. But Denver is a smart team, an experienced team. I know that this is the challenge that’s gonna push us to be great. And I think we’re seeing that. I’m a firm believer that we’re gonna get over that hump.”
The Nuggets have snatched their first two wins of this series the same way they did against the Clippers, oddly: one overtime thriller and one game-winning bucket from Aaron Gordon.
Four of their six playoff victories have been decided either in OT or in the last three seconds of regulation. They’ve played 28 minutes designated as “clutch time” — second-most in this postseason behind New York — with a 29.4 net rating. The Thunder has a minus-28.3 net in 16 clutch minutes so far.
Nuggets interim coach David Adelman agreed that situational familiarity matters late in playoff games, but he hesitated when asked about the reverse side of it — the idea that inexperience weakens a team like Oklahoma City in the moments that swung Game 1 and Game 3.
“We were young once, and we handled it pretty well,” Adelman said. “And they do, too. That’s why they won so many games. The reason they haven’t played a lot of close games is they have completely blown the doors off people the whole season. If I was coaching a team, I would rather do that than play 55 four-point games.
“So yes, the experience helps, but the scary part is the more experience they get in those games, the better they’re gonna be at them — just like we were with Nikola (Jokic) and Jamal (Murray) all those years ago. … You can draw on experience. Unfortunately, they’re getting experience as well.”
The Thunder broke an NBA record for point differential while cruising to 68 wins. But as a result, it also played only 66 “clutch” minutes, the fewest in a season by any team this century. Meanwhile, Denver’s 17.0 clutch net rating ranked atop the Western Conference for the second consecutive season, and at a healthier sample of 146 minutes.
After Game 3, the Nuggets are also 7-1 in overtime games this year, their only defeat coming in double overtime when Russell Westbrook fouled Minnesota’s Nickeil Alexander-Walker at the buzzer.
Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun are all responsible for game-tying or go-ahead shots in the last 10 seconds of a game at least once.
To an extent, there’s an innate quality that transcends experience or lack thereof, as Adelman sees it. He points back to 2019, when Jokic and Murray knocked off San Antonio in seven games in their first playoff series together.
“The most surprising thing … was how comfortable those two guys were at the end of the game,” Adelman remembered. “Immediately. There was no, like, ‘Oh, they’re learning how to play in these games.’ No. They were ready to go. And I see that in those two guys over there.”
He was referring to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, one a likely MVP this season and the other a newly minted All-Star. They remain unproven at this stage. Scrutiny circled them after Game 3, when a struggling Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t defer to a scorching Williams down the stretch. “Sure, he probably could have touched the ball a bit more,” Gilgeous-Alexander acknowledged. “If I make those shots, it’s not even a discussion.”
Everything for them went sideways against Denver’s bottom-10 defense, especially once the extra period tipped off. An 11-2 Nuggets run followed, and what didn’t make sense on paper was the reality of the series.
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Originally Published: May 10, 2025 at 4:55 PM MDT
