Update: Light rain continues for southeast Georgia with rain and thunderstorms across northeast Florida. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible overnight. The unsettled pattern will bring stormy weather this weekend.
Three different models with three different scenarios for the expected rain this weekend. The only thing each model has in common is the increasing rainfall totals for Mother’s Day weekend.
The unsettled pattern continues with each model putting a different spin on the interaction between the stalled frontal boundary and the afternoon sea breeze. Thunderstorms have started near I-10 and I-75 and will continue to move toward the northeast, across southeast Georgia through the late afternoon and early evening.
Across northeast Florida, the convection will start near I-75 and along I-95 as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Afternoon heat and the colliding sea breezes could lead to isolated strong to severe storms for areas east of Highway 301.
Using a blend of model data, southeast Georgia should expect showers with storms to start around 4 pm and continue through around 10 pm. Northeast Florida will see activity begin around 5 pm with storms lingering through 10 – 11 pm.
Tonight: Scattered showers with thunderstorms, some strong to isolated severe, will be possible through late tonight.
Mother’s Day Weekend: Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms, 70-90 percent. A slow-moving front slips further south as a developing low becomes organized over the Gulf. Rounds of locally heavy rainfall could lead to flooding with totals of 3-5 inches. Higher amounts will be possible. Morning lows in the 60s and 70s. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Wind: SE 10-15 mph.
Looking ahead: The wet pattern continues Monday with widespread rain chances. Scattered showers with storms are expected on Tuesday, with drier days and sunnier skies the rest of the week.
Sunrise: 6:36 a.m.
Sunset: 8:10 p.m.
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