A low-pressure system moving towards the Carolinas has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone due to Saharan dust.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A coastal low-pressure system off the Florida coast has a 10% chance of forming tropical or subtropical characteristics as it continues to move closer to the Carolina coast.
The low will interact with Saharan dust, which will help prevent tropical cyclone development.
Tropical lows are warm-core systems, meaning they draw their energy from the warm ocean waters below.
However, a subtropical low, in contrast, is a hybrid system that shares characteristics of both tropical and extratropical systems.
Subtropical lows are usually colder at the core and lack the well-defined warm center that fully tropical systems have.
Saharan dust impacts
Saharan dust, a seasonal weather feature, will be making its way into the Atlantic, arriving near the Carolina coast by Thursday.
The dust will travel up to the Charlotte area, where hazy skies will once again be a noticeable effect.
One of the key ways Saharan dust impacts tropical weather systems is by suppressing convection — the rising of warm air that is essential for the formation of storms.
As the dust particles mix with the atmosphere, they create a layer that can dry out the air and stabilize the atmosphere, essentially putting the brakes on the low-pressure system’s ability to intensify.
The dry air also limits cloud formation, which is necessary for a tropical system to gain strength.
For the coastal low, this means that although it has some potential to develop, the Saharan dust will likely prevent it from becoming a fully organized tropical system.
However, this doesn’t mean that we won’t see some weather impacts as the system moves northward.
Rainfall impacts
While the risk of tropical development is low, the low-pressure system will still bring significant rainfall to the Southeast U.S. from Florida to the Carolinas.
These states are under a low risk for excessive rainfall.
The rain is expected to begin affecting the Charlotte area by Thursday morning throughout the day.
For Florida, some locations could see several inches of rain over the coming days.
As a cold front moves in this weekend, it will push the coastal low out to sea.
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